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(August 10,
2010: Report 171) China's July Oil Demand Growth May Slow Down Sharply while
Long Term Demand Growth Robust
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Although preliminary, we
expect China's July oil demand growth to fall sharply compared to the very
strong demand growth witnessed in June. While June demand growth was in the
double digit level, we expect July's oil demand growth to fall to 2.4%. Some
of the factors affecting China's oil demand were analyzed in the report.>>>
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(July
28, 2010: Report 170)
China’s Sharp De-stocking of Product
Inventory and Strong Refinery Operations: Investment Implications
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As expected, China's product
inventory declined for the fourth consecutive month. The inventory drawdown
rate was very strong. We do note the different inventory patterns of diesel,
gasoline and crude oil and the investment implications. PTEV's estimate of
China's June oil demand growth is very strong, however, July demand growth
is likely to slow down.
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(July
16, 2010: Report 169) China's Key Macro Growth Measurements Slowed Down to
Below Normal Level
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China's
key macro indicators
showed consistent patterns: While the macro fundamentals remain robust, the
growth rates had fallen to below normal level. Our analysis continues to
show expected slower growth in the second half. However, we expect a
soft-landing scenario as opposed to any sharp declines. The June oil demand
growth, though, is expected to be VERY strong, sourced from >>>
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(July 14,
2010: Report 168) Record Breaking Crude Oil Import and Strong Chinese Oil
Demand: More Internally Focused?
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Based on the macro
statistics released to date, they suggest that China's growth will be more
domestically focused. Crude oil import in June has reached record-breaking
level. We are increasing our 2010 and 2011 oil demand growth rates. In
particular, we note >>>
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(June 24,
2010: Report 167) Global Oil Price Highly correlated to China's Oil Import
Level: An Analysis of China's Oil Inventory, Demand, Import and Margins
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Consistent with our
forecast, China signaled policy shifts in its currency. In addition, China's
oil inventory declined again. This marked a multi-month inventory decline.
Importantly, China's import was strong. An analysis of China's oil import
and global oil prices showed very interesting result with high correlations.>>>
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(June
11, 2010: Report 166)
China’s May Oil Demand Growth at Single
Digit Level, but Still Strong
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As anticipated, China's
May oil demand fell to the single digit level, yet still strong. The
positive drivers are many, led by the impressive output growth of its
refinery outputs. Furthermore, we expect the May inventory to decline,
although not officially confirmed. The macro-trends, including IVA, fixed
asset investments are bullish>>>
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(June
10, 2010:Report 165) China's Trade Level Surged: Paving the Road for
Currency Flexibility
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China's trade level in
May increased dramatically. More importantly, the export surged. The
implications of China's surging export and the return of its strong trade
surplus are many, not the least of which is that it paves the road for
future currency reform. Which nations actually increased import from China?
The answer may be surprising
>>>
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(June 1,
2010: Alert 164) China Reduced Gasoline and Diesel Prices but Increased
Natural gas Price
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China announced that
effective June 1, 2010, gasoline and diesel retail price ceilings will be
reduced by 3.1% and 3.3% respectively. Much more significant is the fact
that China raised its natural gas price by a whopping 24.9%. There are many
significant implications based on the recent price adjustments. The natural
gas price increase is a significant step. Our report indicates that>>>
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(May
28, 2010: Report 163)
China’s Inelastic Oil Demand: Bullish
Implications with Strongest Margins since January 2009
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China's oil demand growth
was very strong in 2010. However, was the strong demand growth achieved via
sharp price discounts? The issue of China's oil price elasticity
is a fundamentally important one with significant global oil price
implications as well as investment implications. In this report, we
presented our analysis >>>
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